Beyond Hollywood and Qom

Beyond Hollywood and Qom

I do not know how many times a day one hears, about how the Islamist thugs in Iran, can unilaterally do whatever they like, and the world cannot do anything about it. Only today we hear that one of the thugs called Khatami arrogantly saying that the Islamic regime does not need the IAEA approval at all. To me that is alright. He is not very intelligent and one day he will stand in the World Court in the Hague.

But what can we do with the writers of International Herald Tribune (IHT). These writers are supposed to be intelligent. Just like the way National Geographic made a big mistake with the naming of Persian Gulf, we have similar problem with other reports from the members of the press. So most of Iran's problems are not so much Iran's. The problems stem from naive correspondents and writers, who will use Iran to have a go at United States.

The scenario the reporters will paint goes something like this. Correspondents will explain that even if IAEA does send Islamic regime's file to the security council, the Russians and Chinese will veto any resolution. It sounds like a powerful argument, but it is not. One then thinks that neocons like John Bolton and Dick Cheney will let the Israelis have a carte blanche to do whatever they like. We are led to believe that the neocons in Iran, and the neocons of United States have found the perfect sparring partners for a long term war, to keep themselves in power for ever. So the Iranian population is conviniently split along this point of view. We have those people who like mullah neocons such as Ahmadinejad, and we have those people who like US neocons like Dick Cheney. One lives in Hollywood, the other lives in Qom. The people are then led to believe that it makes no difference, so better to keep the devil you know, rather than opt for the neocon of USA's scenario. The theocrats will make it appear as if they are better than the warmongering neocons of USA. The poor in Iran are then reminded of their religious obligations, and the whole argument fizzles out.

But let's look at what really influences power, namely money. The poor in Iran, the Basij who have besieged Iran, still need money and jobs. It does not matter what the Koran says, at the end of the day, someone somehow must put the bread on the table. Today Iran, including the poor and the Basij are in dire straits, so much that there is political infighting amongst the theocrats. Ahmadinejad's false modesty charm, and his criticism of Rafsanjani's bourgeoisie, got him elected. Everyone has been sold on the belief that Ahmadinejad is going to work miracles for just the sort of the people he comes from. He is supposedly the son of a poor black smith. But what system provided the education for this poor black smith's son. Is it true right now for all poor black smiths? Much of the infrastructure of present day Iran is built upon the achievments under his Imperial Majesty Shahanshah Aryamehr.

Now let's look at the crude economic reality. This is something that applies to whoever governs Iran. Iran is highly dependant on Europe. It does not matter what Russia and China do in the UN. If the Europeans decide to pull the plug on Iran, the economy of Iran will suffer greatly. 40% of Iran's trade is with EU. In short the EU can do without Iran, but Iran cannot do without EU. So if the EU-3 decide to place an economic embargo, or penalise firms doing business with Iran, it can cause a lot problems for Ahmadinejad. Just think what would happen to the automobile industry of Iran if the French car companies halted their investments. Then there are other major infrastructure projects that are being carried out with European firms. But ironically with all the investments that the Europeans have made, there are still a lot of economic problems. Economic mismanagement, corruption, and whole host of other problems, are endemic in third world societies, and no Islamic ideology will change that. Remember that in 1975, Iran's economy was stronger than Turkey, now look at it, even with oil being so high. So Khatami and his cronies know how bad the economic situation is in Iran, and they have managed to leave quite gracefully, and have left all the potential problems with Ahmadinejad's thugs.

To conclude, the Europeans have much more power over the theocrats in Iran, than the theocrats and their new face Ahmadinejad like to show. The moment that theocrats decide to renege on their nuclear comitments to EU-3, they will have started a path to disaster. EU will slowly pass laws forbidding trade with the Islamic regime. Ahmadinejad and his cronies will be slowly tamed by the EU. Ahmadinejad will not of course admit to his inability to force the EU to sing to his tune, while he is gently waltzing to the EU commands. After a while the black smiths in Iran will notice that not much has changed. The novelty has worn off. The honey moon is over. Ahmadinejad will run out of excuses, and he will be forced to do what he is really good at, namely thuggery. But this time most of the people of Iran already know that, and are preparing for his failure.

Taking Iran to the UN: A dangerous game

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